Mar 30, 2022
(3/30/22) The current, near-10% rally is largest we've seen in
history--assuming we're in a bear market. While technically, we
didn't see a correction, the actions of the market belies
otherwise. It is only in bear markets that these types of reflexive
rallies are observed. We've had very negative sentiment, very light
investor positioning, many are shorting the market, and speculators
have essentially evaporated--AARK funds are down almost 30% this
year. The subsequent reflexive rally off these lows, thanks to a
little good news, is being mostly driven by short-covering. This
will have a very limited life. Markets have now recovered to two
standard-deviations oversold from two standard deviations
overbought of the 50_DMA. A rally back to all time market highs
will not change the market still being in a giant consolidation
range, and the basic market dynamics have not been altered.
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