Aug 31, 2023
(8/31/23) Markets prepare to move into September, with weaker ADP report, downward revision to GDP, and a large gap between GDP vs GDI (Gross Domestic Income). GDP is on the rise, GDI is declining; what will revisions show? The deviation between income vs production must be rectified. Market rally continues; September may not be as weak as historical averages suggest, thanks to August action. Is GDP actually lower than reported? Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate;" Powell holding firm on 2% inflation goal. The real impact of more debt on economic growth: There is a negative multiplier. Hurricane Idalia & The Broken Window Theory; pulling forward consumption. Earnings & Economic Report previews; noting the shift from "Meta" mentions to "AI" in earnings reports. Parsing Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: blaming Ukraine war for inflation, with no mention of inflationary effect of stimulus money flooding the economy. The arsonist gets the Nobel Prize for putting out the fire. Has the Fed already broken something? Dollar General reports 16% decline: Has Dollar General become the 84-cent Store? The Lag Effect is evident in consumer spending; there are two stories: Gov't Data vs on the street data. Resumption of Student Loan payments & Sally Mae notices. What happens to small- and mid-cap companies when loans come due in a higher-rate environment? Investors are hiding in mega-cap companies flush w cash and low-rate debt.
SEG-1: GDP on the rise, GDI in Decline
SEG-2: Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate"
SEG-3: Earnings & Economic Reports Preview; Jerome Powell's blame
for Inflation
SEG-4: Dollar General drops 16%: Lag Effect is Evident
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance
Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWmqq-Eqr2o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will
September Weakness Return?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Markets Cleared Resistance"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1UKs7gc6TE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Inflation And Deficits And QT, Oh My -Part 2"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-and-deficits-and-qt-oh-my-part-2
"10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/
"Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/
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Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
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